OpenAI’s Private Price vs. Anthropic’s Public Price

Two groups of buyers looked at the same OpenAI round this month. Private wealth clients, offered the round at $1.4 trillion, came in light. Gulf capital kept negotiating. OpenAI cut its ask by $150 billion to $1.25 trillion, with UAE investors leading alongside Coatue.

Three days later, Anthropic opened its books.

That week put the two ways a frontier lab gets priced side by side. OpenAI names its number and asks buyers to meet it. Anthropic is about to have its number set by the public market.

Disclosure up front. UpRound holds indirect exposure to Anthropic and OpenAI through USVC. Everything below is public information.

For three years, OpenAI’s price only went one way. $157 billion in October 2024. $300 billion in March 2025. $852 billion this March.

The last mark before this round was not set by an outside buyer. In August, OpenAI bought back about $7 billion of employee shares at $852 billion with its own cash. The company was both the buyer and the price setter.

It ran this round the same way. In early October, OpenAI presented $1.4 trillion pre-money as a set price, before it had picked a lead. Venture rounds do not usually work that way. The lead negotiates the terms and the round follows. OpenAI named the number first.

Private wealth did not fill it. Morgan Stanley and Dragoneer marketed the round to wealthy individuals, and demand was reportedly weaker than in prior OpenAI raises. One source told the FT it was “a bit of a thud.” On October 22, the number came down.

The headlines called it a cut. It is a smaller step up. $1.25 trillion is still about 47% above March, nearly $400 billion of added value in seven months. What changed is who set it. For the first time, buyers moved OpenAI’s price.

Institutional capital did not leave. A group of UAE funds, including Abu Dhabi’s MGX, was negotiating in early October at the $1.4 trillion price and discussing up to $10 billion combined. BlackRock was in talks to join. The University of California endowment, Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz were also reported in the conversation.

From Dubai, this is the part that matters. One country’s funds were discussing a third of the round. OpenAI is also reportedly negotiating a separate deal for more computing capacity from the UAE. The Gulf is not only funding the frontier. It wants to power it. MGX has backed OpenAI before, and it has backed Anthropic too.

On October 26, Anthropic made its S-1 public. One of its lead underwriters is Morgan Stanley, the same bank that marketed OpenAI’s round to its wealth clients.

Anthropic’s filing comes down to four numbers.

Anthropic booked more revenue in six months than OpenAI reported for all of 2025. Most of the loss is accounting, not cash burn.

OpenAI filed confidentially in June. Its numbers are with the SEC, not the public. This round’s $1.25 trillion becomes the number its IPO, reported for 2027, has to defend. Until then, every buyer of OpenAI’s private shares prices against a public comparable. When Anthropic lists, that comparable gets a market price.

Three signals. First, whether OpenAI closes the full $30 billion at $1.25 trillion when signatures are due on October 30. Second, Anthropic’s price range. The S-1 leaves it blank, and reported IPO talk is $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Third, where Anthropic actually prices.

The third matters most. OpenAI’s $1.25 trillion was set by who showed up to a private round. Anthropic’s price will be set by public investors working from filed numbers. Once Anthropic lists, OpenAI’s price stops being a question of demand. It becomes a question of how its numbers compare.

Private buyers set OpenAI’s price this month. Public buyers will check it next.

Bashar Aboudaoud
Managing Member, UpRound

Share with 10 people to receive a quarterly call with Bashar.